When a federal judge ruled that Google has maintained a monopoly in search advertising, one thing was clear: this was not good news for Google. In the weeks that have followed the decision, the tech world has buzzed with speculation, rumor, and analysis.
While the headlines might scream about the ruling, it's essential to look deeper into the implications and what might come next. The ruling answered one big question – does Google operate a search monopoly? – but it left a lot unanswered, and raised even more.
This ruling, significant as it is, might just be the tip of the iceberg in a series of antitrust challenges that Google and other big tech companies will face in the near future.
Google is facing another antitrust suit when it comes to its ad tech business. A decision is expected on that in September. Factor in the feedback the tech giant has received from European regulators this year, and it starts to make sense as to why Google would abandon its plans to phase out third-party cookie support in its Chrome browser. Google likely saw this coming and has been strategically maneuvering to prepare for the fallout.
As the entire ad industry waits with baited breath to see what will actually happen, it’s important to remember just how little information we have. For all of the speculation, there are some very real possibilities to consider:
What changes should we expect?
Google will almost certainly appeal the ruling, dragging this case out for years. So while there may be discussions about breaking up Google, little is expected to change in the company’s operations for the time being.
Even once an appeal is made, the real challenge is still a ways off. If this case runs the course, the big changes will only come once penalties are decided and the government determines the structural changes needed so that Google no longer operates as a monopoly in the government’s eyes.
What’s an appropriate penalty?
There will be fines at some point, but what’s the more interesting component to the ruling is the potential restrictions on Google’s business practices. There are two obvious possibilities:
- Google would have limited ability to secure default search engine agreements with publishers or hardware makes.
- Google could no longer operate as a black box and would have to provide transparency into its advertising operations.
These changes would be beneficial to the wider advertising industry. The second would be significant to advertisers, who would finally see where their ad dollars go.
But there could be other less conventional penalties. Could Google be forced to sell off its search technology? Would search be subject to government regulation going forward to prevent other monopolies? Will Google simply sacrifice search in its current form as it anticipates a move toward AI?
Is the ad industry safe from unintended outcomes?
Here’s where things get particularly interesting. Some analysts suggest that the search antitrust ruling could, unexpectedly, make Google even stronger.
Google has paid large sums to companies like Apple to be the default search engine on their devices, like the iPhone and iPad. If the ruling prevents such payments, Google might actually save money, while users—who often prefer Chrome anyway— will likely switch their default browser to Chrome. In this case, a company like Apple suffers a loss of users and the revenue that it was receiving from Google. Google would maintain its user base, while Apple’s bottom line takes a loss.
Looking to the future while preparing for today
Rest assured, we’re at the very beginning of a long, complex battle that will twist and turn in the coming months. Whether these legal challenges weaken Google’s dominance or inadvertently strengthen it remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the landscape of digital advertising and search is on the brink of significant change. Feel free to reach out to Alliant, who continues to closely monitor and anticipate what comes next to ensure marketing strategies are future-ready.
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